Thursday's Picks and Predictions

ALL PICKS, INCLUDING MY PLAY OF THE DAY WILL BE POSTED HERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY!

MLB
SAN FRAN -130
NY-METS -115
FLORIDA -115

PHILLY UNDER 9

WASHINGTON UNDER 9.5

TAMPA BAY UNDER 9.5

NFLx

INDIANAPOLIS VS. PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles lost to the Pats last week at home and now take their show on the road to face the Colts. The Eagles dominated headlines this week after the controversial signing of Michael Vick. McNabb and Company are expected to play the entire first half and Coach Reid is looking for this unit to show major improvement over last week. Meanwhile, the Colts lost to the Vikings last week in a game where Peyton Manning only took 6 snaps BUT was sacked 3 times!! Coach Caldwell already announced that Manning and starters will see a maximum of 20 plays this week before giving way to the backups. This gives a huge edge to the Eagles and I love backing teams whose starters will see backups for any length of time – and this is the situation we have tonight. The Vikings defense presented the Colts will all kinds of matchup problems and the Eagles will do the same. The Colts have failed miserably in preseason going 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS in their L19 including a horrible 1-8 SU and ATS in their L9 at home and just 3-8 ATS as a dog.

PREDICTION: PHILLY 24 INDY 10

(PHILLY -3)

NEW ENGLAND VS. CINCINNATI

The Pats return home off an impressive opening week win at Philadelphia. Tom Brady looked very good in his return and this already has the public feeling very good about New England’s chances this year. Meanwhile, the Bengals enter tonight off a 17-7 loss to New Orleans. In that game Carson Palmer suffered a mild ankle sprain and more than likely will sit this one out as a result. The performances from last week combined with the fact that Brady should see extended playing time while Palmer will sit out is what leads us to our current line of 7. It is only reasonable to think the Pats win and cover, especially give the set of circumstances and I do see early action coming in on the Pats which supports my logic. However, it is worth noting that during the preseason it has been very profitable to go against teams coming off a win, especially when their starters performed very well – and this is the situation we have tonight with the Pats. I also find the Bengals in the strong situation which involves week 2 preseason underdogs with zero wins – these teams have covered the number 2/3 of the time over the long run (54-28 L82). In another very strong angle week 2 teams coming off a poor previous season are an incredible 27-9 ATS L36 when playing on the road and against an opponent coming off a good or average season. All signs point to New England, especially at home, but I love the Bengals to get their first preseason win. It is worth noting the Pats haven’t had a winning preseason since 2003 and they are a 1-3 SU and ATS L2 years at home.

PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 20 NEW ENGLAND 16

(CINCY +7 ***PLAY OF THE DAY*** AND CINCY ML +240)

MORE TO COME INCLUDING NFLX PLAY OF THE DAY...........